Last week's US, Israel, and Iran Situation Update generated more questions than any briefing we have hosted. That response reflects the operational reality your teams are navigating: a fast-moving crisis, contradictory signals, and decisions that cannot wait for certainty. Where questions covered similar ground, we have grouped them to give you the most complete answers possible.
The question we received most often was not about a specific country or airspace. It was about process. How does Osprey know which signals are real?
How Osprey identifies what matters
From mid-January, as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran escalated, the open-source environment did not go quiet. It flooded. The Middle East crisis produced hundreds of signals daily across news feeds, social platforms, government channels, and flight tracking data. Many of those signals referenced the same underlying source, repackaged and republished until they appeared to represent independent corroboration. They did not.
This is the structural problem with raw OSINT: volume creates the illusion of clarity. The more sources saying the same thing, the more credible it feels, even when they are all drawing from one origin point. Osprey's role is to break that cycle.
Every signal entering the Osprey platform is assessed against four criteria before it informs a forecast or triggers an alert:
Is it independently corroborated?
Osprey monitors more than 200,000 sources across 60 languages. Each signal is cross-referenced against independent sources before it is treated as verified. A story appearing in 40 outlets from a single origin counts as one data point, not 40.
Does it represent a genuine pattern change?
Machine learning models identify deviations from baseline: unusual military movements, shifts in AIS transponder behaviour, communications blackouts, and changes in light intensity in areas of known tension. These are the signals that do not appear in news feeds.
What does the silence mean?
In a world of constant information, what speaks loudest is silence. When the volume of activity around a specific location or frequency drops sharply, that absence is itself an intelligence signal. Osprey monitors for when things go dark.
What is the probability and timeframe?
Every Osprey forecast includes a probability assessment and an analyst-reviewed timeframe, not a binary safe or unsafe judgement. In the first half of 2023, 43 percent of Osprey notifications were proactive, with a 98 percent accuracy rating. That lead time is what separates a planned rerouting decision from a reactive cancellation.
The analyst assessments that follow reflect this process. Each answer draws on verified, multi-source intelligence reviewed by Osprey's specialist team, not open-source aggregation.
Q&A: Analyst responses
Does Osprey have information closures within Turkish airspace?
There are no indications that Turkish airspace has closed due amid the Iran conflict.
What measures does Osprey advise regarding flights into locations of the Middle East at present?
- Short turn around flights with minimum time spent on ground
- Maintain cruising altitudes above FL320 for as much as possible
- Evaluate use of IATA Inflight Broadcasting Procedure (IFBP)
- Evaluate use of Traffic Information by Aircraft (TIBA) procedures in ICAO Doc 7030
- Remain in regular contact with ATC during the duration of flight
- Identify pre-planned alternative routing for flights
- Identify pre-planned divert options for flights
- Ensure flight plans are correctly filed in advance of all operations
- Attain proper special approvals for flight operations to sensitive locations
- Ensure to obtain all relevant overflight permits prior to departure for all operations
- Ensure adequate fuel onboard in case of rerouting and be prepared to enter holdings patterns
- Operate with applicable transponders on, to including ADSB
- Reliable and redundant navigation systems and plan for loss of GPS due to interference
- Reliable and redundant communications with an established communications plan
- Fully coordinated and robust emergency response plan supplemented by asset tracking
What is Osprey’s assessment of the likelihood of Yemeni Houthi involvement in the conflict?
Osprey assesses it is likely the Yemeni Houthi IBMG will resume attacks on Israel and commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden regions, and it is also possible it will attack targets in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states in the short term – such as the next two week timeframe. A key indicator of Yemeni Houthi involvement in the conflict would be the Gulf States launching retaliatory strikes inside Iran.
Does Osprey have an assessment on when a) Iran will run low on missiles and drones and b) When Gulf allies will run low on air defence munitions?
Osprey assesses that Iran has likely already begun to reserve its missile stockpiles in order to launch c.25 missiles per day within the region for a 90 day period. Regarding drones, Osprey assesses Iran is likely to be able to launch c.100 drones per day for a duration of 90 days.
Regarding air defence stockpile for intercepting missiles in the Gulf States and wider Middle East region, Osprey assesses stockpiles are sufficient for a 30-60 day conflict; however, Osprey assesses it’s a realistic possibility certain countries will start to face acute shortages in the 60-90 day timeframe.
Osprey assesses that regional countries and Gulf States air & air defences, including electronic warfare units are likely capable of employing a 90% effective engagement rate against drones in the 90 day timeframe.
What is Osprey’s assessment of additional attacks on Cyprus?
Osprey assesses that additional sporadic drone launches in limited numbers are likely to target military base locations in Cyprus during the conflict. However, the drones are likely to be downed by military air & air defences, with associated short notice airport and/or airspace closures likely during the military responses.
The intelligence behind the answers
Every assessment above reflects the same underlying process: directed collection across more than 200,000 sources, multi-source corroboration, and expert analyst review before any signal informs a risk rating or reaches your operations team.
Open-source intelligence surfaces the signals. Osprey determines which ones are real.
- Verified intelligence: every data point is corroborated across independent sources before it informs an assessment
- Forecasts with lead time: 98% accuracy, identifying escalation before it affects your operations, not after
- Situation updates: verified context as conditions evolve, replacing the circular reporting of raw open-source channels
- Alerts you can act on: verified events and incidents, written by our analysts and delivered directly to your inbox to filter the noise before it reaches your operations team
- The data you cannot see: military movements, light intensity changes, AIS jamming and spoofing — signals that do not appear in open-source feeds
| 200,000+ sources monitored | 98% forecast accuracy | 60 languages monitored |
| If your operations team is managing overflight risk through open-source monitoring alone, you are working with noise, not intelligence. Osprey filters through the noise so your acts with confidence when it matters most. | ||
Speak to our team
The Middle East situation continues to evolve. If you have questions about your specific routes, airspace exposure, or how Osprey's intelligence can integrate with your operational workflows, our team is available to discuss your requirements directly.
