On 1 September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered one of his starkest warnings yet to the aviation industry. He told every airline still operating in Russian airspace, along with their insurers and the operators of Russia's key airports, that the skies over Russia are "becoming completely unsafe." Zelensky was clear that Ukraine does not intend to target civilian aircraft, but he was equally clear that the scale of drone activity in Russian airspace must now be factored into every operational decision.
For operators still flying to, from, or over Russia, this is more than a headline. It raises the bar on what "reasonable" risk management looks like, and it puts pressure on safety, security and commercial teams to prove that their decisions are based on evidence, not assumption.
Zelensky's warning was addressed directly to insurers as well as airlines, and that is not incidental. War risk cover for operations near active conflict zones is already subject to close scrutiny, and insurers routinely expect evidence of an up-to-date, structured risk assessment before they will maintain or renew that cover. A warning of this kind, made publicly by a head of state, is exactly the sort of development insurers will expect operators to have factored into their risk process.
The evidence problem
Every operator flying in this environment faces the same question from three directions at once: their own management, their crews, and their insurers. Each wants the same thing: proof. Proof that the risk has been properly assessed. Proof that mitigation measures are in place. And proof that decisions are being reviewed as the situation changes, not made once and left alone.
This is a hard standard to meet with open-source news alone. Statements from Ukraine and Russia change daily, sometimes hourly. Airport closures, drone downings and strike locations vary by region, altitude and time of day. Without a structured way to capture, analyse and record this information, operators are left trying to build an audit trail from memory and news alerts, which is difficult to defend under scrutiny.
Osprey’s Chief Intelligence Officer, Matthew Borie, comments: “It is also worth being clear about what has actually changed. Drone activity over Russia, and the disruption it causes to Russian airspace, has been building for months. The underlying risk has not shifted overnight. What has shifted is the level of public attention, following a direct statement from a head of state who is himself a party to the conflict. That is exactly why statements from either side, Kyiv or Moscow, cannot be the sole basis for a risk decision. Both have an obvious interest in how the story is told. Operators need consistent access to data from an independent source with no stake in the conflict, so decisions rest on evidence rather than rhetoric”.
How Osprey's Solutions Support Operators?
Osprey bridges that data gap; as a third-party intelligence solution, we have no hidden agenda or bias when it comes to risk management. Every piece of intelligence comes directly from our team of experts and is verified by multiple open sources. Giving your teams the confidence to act on decisions with ease.
Osprey’s system tracks every Russian defence ministry statement on the location and number of drone downings, along with regional governors' statements on the timing and targets of Ukrainian drone attacks. We also monitor airport closures and reopenings linked to drone activity across Russia.
Applying AI-driven trend and pattern analysis to this data, alongside an expert risk team, Osprey gives clients a dynamic view of where airspace risk is concentrated, which altitudes are affected, and when hazardous activity is most likely. Clients receive this intelligence through alerts, historical data analytics and on-demand risk assessments, with direct access to Osprey's team of analysts whenever they need it.
From awareness to action
Understanding the risk is only the first step. Osprey has helped multiple airlines apply this intelligence to real operational decisions, including:
- Geographic deconfliction – selecting routes through Russian airspace that avoid the areas of highest activity.
- Time-based deconfliction – choosing route timing and take-off and landing times to reduce exposure during higher-risk windows.
For operators with more complex networks, Osprey's most advanced services integrate threat intelligence directly with flight plans, giving a complete view of risk exposure across live and planned operations. Several Osprey clients use this to improve situational awareness across teams and reduce disruption, rather than reacting to it after the fact.
Building an auditable risk record
Perhaps most importantly for operators flying to Russia today, Osprey’s Risk Manager lets users apply their own mitigation measures to Osprey's untreated risk scores for countries, airports, and airspace. This produces a residual risk score that reflects the controls actually in place, not just the baseline threat.
This matters because it turns risk management into something that can be shown, not just described. Teams across the business can see the same assessment. And when insurers, regulators or senior management ask how a decision was reached, operators have a documented, auditable trail covering the entire risk management process, built within one platform.
Is your risk management on top of operations in Russian airspace?
Zelensky's warning has changed the conversation around Russian airspace. Operators who continue to fly there need more than good intentions. They need a clear, current, defensible record of how they assess and manage risk.
Operating to Russia and need to justify your decision-making and show how you're mitigating the risk to management, crews and your insurance team? That is exactly what Risk Manager is built for.
Get in touch with the Osprey team to see Risk Manager in action.