Since c.0300 UTC on 24 February, Russian military cross border strikes into Ukraine have been reported, with approximately 4,000 cruise and ballistic missiles as well as guided rocket artillery targeting main urban centres outside of Donetsk and Luhansk, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Lviv, Ivano Frankivsk, Lutsk, Odessa, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Mariupol. Airports, airbases and/or military installations with aviation infrastructure in many cities have been targeted.

On 29 March, Russia stated the primary aim of the “Special Military Operation” is to “liberate” the Donbass (Donetsk and Luhansk ), and Russian forces withdrew from areas north of Kyiv. However, Mariupol was taken by Russian forces by late May . The vast majority of the fighting in the south spans from Mykolaiv near Crimea through to the Sea of Azov area and into the Donbass, though Russian military operations in the Kharkiv region are ongoing. Osprey expects the Ukraine war will shift further to the southwest in the months ahead with heavy fighting expected near Zaporizhzhya to Kherson, along the Dnieper River.

Click here to view the latest Situation Update as of 9 August 2022

 

Map displaying an estimated overview of Russian & Ukrainian SAM system deployments

Previous Updates

To view the Situation Update from 1 July 2022, please click here

To view the Situation Update from 2 June 2022, please click here

To view the Situation Update from 29 April 2022, please click here

To view the Situation Update from 14 April 2022, please click here

To view the Situation Update from 30 March 2022, please click here

To view the Situation Update from 11 March 2022, please click here

To view the Situation Update from 8 March 2022, please click here

To view the Situation Update from 4 March 2022, please click here

To view the Situation Update from 28 February 2022, please click here

To view the Situation Update Webinar series from February 2022, please click here

To view the Situation Update from 25 February 2022, please click here

To view the Situation Update from 18 February 2022, please click here

To view the Situation Update from 14 February 2022, click here

To view the Situation Update from 7 February 2022, please click here

To view the Situation Update from 10 January 2022, please click here

Additional Information

To read our December 2021 case study on the situation changes, please click here

To read our April 2021 case study assessing the situation, please click here

 

About the author

Matthew Borie Chief Intelligence Officer

As Chief Intelligence Officer, Matt provides strategic direction for Osprey’s data collection and analytical output, as well as expert analysis on a wide range of aviation-related issues, with a focus on conflict zone activity.

He has 14 years of aviation security and intelligence experience in the public and private sectors. Previously, Matt worked as an intelligence analyst at the MedAire & Control Risks Aviation Security Center. Prior to that, he completed an eight-year enlistment in the US Air Force, serving as an Operations Intelligence Craftsman. During his Air Force career, Matt provided intelligence support to fighter aircraft operations, including a deployment to a location in Southeast Asia; he also completed deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan.

Matt holds an Associate’s and Bachelor’s Degrees in Intelligence Studies from American Military University (AMU) and, in August 2015, completed a Master’s Degree in National Security Studies from AMU, followed by a Graduate Certificate in Terrorism Studies in December 2017.

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