On 3 October 2022, a UN-mediated ceasefire between the Saudi-led coalition (SLC) – as well as its aligned forces in Yemen – and the Houthis ended. The UN envoy to Yemen has said that negotiations remain ongoing to revive the ceasefire; however, an agreement has not been reached to date.

The initial ceasefire ran from 2 April to 2 October and the SLC has not conducted strikes in Yemen against the Houthis since. The ceasefire led to a notable decrease in violence in Yemen, and while armed clashes had been reported between the Houthis and Yemeni government forces, the rebels refrained from launching attacks into Saudi Arabia or the Gulf states. However, violence in Yemen notably increased during October-November as armed clashes between the Houthi rebels and Yemeni forces aligned with the SLC have flared in several provinces.

This report provides a data-led overview of the threat to air operations to/from and over Yemen, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Region as well as a comprehensive summary of how the airspace environment in these areas has evolved and our recommendations for your operations.

For further reading, check out our other resources:

Understanding the Threat: Airspace Safety & Security over Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia: What are the effects of the current military conflict with Yemeni Houthi rebels?

Osprey assessment of Houthi capability & intent to target the UAE

Houthi Drone and Missile Attacks in Saudi Arabia

 

About the author

Matthew Borie Chief Intelligence Officer

As Chief Intelligence Officer, Matt provides strategic direction for Osprey’s data collection and analytical output, as well as expert analysis on a wide range of aviation-related issues, with a focus on conflict zone activity.

He has 14 years of aviation security and intelligence experience in the public and private sectors. Previously, Matt worked as an intelligence analyst at the MedAire & Control Risks Aviation Security Center. Prior to that, he completed an eight-year enlistment in the US Air Force, serving as an Operations Intelligence Craftsman. During his Air Force career, Matt provided intelligence support to fighter aircraft operations, including a deployment to a location in Southeast Asia; he also completed deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan.

Matt holds an Associate’s and Bachelor’s Degrees in Intelligence Studies from American Military University (AMU) and, in August 2015, completed a Master’s Degree in National Security Studies from AMU, followed by a Graduate Certificate in Terrorism Studies in December 2017.

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